Pandemic predictions that promised certainty—and delivered confusion: What we must learn

In the early months of 2020, a curious thing happened. Around the globe, a new kind of number began appearing in government briefings and newspaper headlines. These weren’t just case counts or hospital admissions. They were predictions—curves plotted weeks into the future, graphs that told us when the COVID-19 wave would crest, how many ICU beds we’d need, and how soon we’d be safe again. The models had arrived.